1st Edition
Estimating the Impacts of Urban Growth on Future Flood Risk A Comparative Study
The unprecedented growth of cities has a significant impact on future flood risk that might exceed the impacts of climate change in many metropolitan areas across the world. Although the effects of urbanisation on flood risk are well understood, assessments that include spatially explicit future growth projections are limited.
This comparative study provides insight in the long term development of future riverine and pluvial flood risk for 18 fast growing megacities. The outcomes provide not only a baseline absent in current practise, but also a strategic outlook that might better establish the role of urban planning in limiting future flood risk.
1. Background
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Urban growth: towards the building blocks
1.3 Urban growth and scenario development
1.4 Urban growth and flood risk
1.5 Flood vulnerability assessment
1.6 Converging to the scope
1.7 Reader’s guide
1.8 Embedded research projects
2. Research Questions and Methodology
2.1 From state-of-the-art to research questions
2.2 Hypotheses
2.3 Research Methodologies and skills
2.4 Methodological considerations
2.5 Peripheral topics
2.6 Originality, innovation and potential impact
2.7 Selection of case studies
3. Memetic algorithm optimised urban growth model
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Case Study
3.3 Data and model setup
3.4 Outcomes
3.5 Projections
3.6 Discussion
3.7 Conclusion
4. Urban growth projections
4.1 Introduction
4.2 BAU for urban growth
4.3 Historic and projected urban growth
4.4 Growth potential and characteristics
4.5 Conclusions
5. Future riverine flooding in megacities
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Urban growth and floods
5.3 Validation
5.4 Outcomes
5.5 Evaluation and Conclusions
5.6 Extending the outcomes: CC-sensitivity
5.7 Discussion
6. Assessing the effects of urban growth on urban drainage
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Operationalising future drainage performance through ISR
6.3 Outcomes: Towards a Sponge City
6.4 Discussion
6.5 Conclusions
7. Adding depth: Estimating flood damages in Dhaka
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Dhaka case study
7.3 Urban growth model, flood model and damage model
7.4 Scenarios
7.5 Outcomes
7.6 Interpretation
7.7 Discussion
8. Further explorations
8.1 Urban growth modelling and implications on water supply and sanitation planning
8.2 Urban growth and microclimate
9. Towards an argument
9.1 Answering the RQs and testing hypotheses
9.2 Conclusions
9.3 Recommendations
9.4 Discussion
10. Bibliography
Appendix A: Urban growth and riverine flooding
Appendix B: Pluvial flooding
Biography
Willem Veerbeek is one of the founders of the Flood Resilience Group at UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education in Delft, The Netherlands. He has a wide experience in flood adaptation of urban areas in The Netherlands as well as internationally. His work was instrumental in the refinement of national flood impact assessment tools, which were tested in Dutch paradigm shifting projects like UFM-Dordrecht and Rotterdam-based projects in the Dutch Knowledge for Climate programme. He worked extensively in megacities like Beijing, Dhaka and Mumbai where his work focussed on the development of long term urban growth projections and their impact on future flood risk. Strengthening UNESCO-IHE’s mission in capacity development, Willem has been training many cities in climate adaption, especially in Southeast Asia. Currently he is developing a city-to-city learning network on green-blue infrastructure in the North Sea region.
