1st Edition

Modeling Hydrologic Change Statistical Methods

By Richard H. McCuen Copyright 2003
    448 Pages 64 B/W Illustrations
    by CRC Press

    Modeling hydrologic changes and predicting their impact on watersheds is a dominant concern for hydrologists and other water resource professionals, civil and environmental engineers, and urban and regional planners. As such changes continue, it becomes more essential to have the most up-to-date tools with which to perform the proper analyses and modeling of the complex ecology, morphology, and physical processes that occur within watersheds. An application-oriented text, Modeling Hydrologic Change: Statistical Methods provides a step-by-step presentation of modeling procedures to help you properly analyze and model real-world data.

    The text addresses modeling systems where change has affected data that will be used to calibrate and test models of the system. The use of actual hydrologic data will help you learn how to handle the vagaries of real-world hydrologic-change data. All four elements of the modeling process are discussed: conceptualization, formulation, calibration, and verification. Although the book is oriented towards the statistical aspects of modeling, a strong background in statistics is not required. The statistical and modeling methods discussed here will be of value to all disciplines involved in modeling change. With approximately 100 illustrations, Modeling Hydrologic Change will equip you with an understanding with which to perform the proper analyses and modeling of the complex processes that occur across various disciplines.

    DATA, STATISTICS, AND MODELING
    Watershed Changes
    Effect on Flood Record
    Watershed Change and Frequency Analysis
    Detection of Nonhomogeneity
    Modeling of Nonhomogeneity

    INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES MODELING
    Components of a Time Series
    Moving-Average Filtering
    Autocorrelation Analysis
    Cross-Correlation Analysis
    Identification of Random Components
    Autoregression and Cross-Regression Models

    STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING
    Procedure for Testing Hypotheses
    Relationships among Hypothesis Test Parameters
    Parametric and Nonparametric Tests

    OUTLIER DETECTION
    Chauvener's Method
    Dixon-Thompson Test
    Rosner's Outlier Test
    Log Pearson Type III Outlier Detection: Bulletin 17b
    Pearson Type III Outlier Detection

    STATISTICAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
    Frequency Analysis and Synthesis
    Population Models
    Adjusting Flood Record for Urbanization

    GRAPHICAL DETECTION OF NONHOMOGENEITY Graphical Analyses
    Compilation of Causal Information
    Supporting Computational Analyses

    STATISTICAL DETECTION OF NONHOMOGENEITY
    Runs Test
    Kendall Test for Trend
    Pearson Test for Serial Independence
    Spearman Test for Trend
    Spearman-Conley Test
    Cox-Stuart Test for Trend
    Noether's Binomial Test for Cyclical Trend
    Durbin-Watson Test for Autocorrelation
    Equality of Two Correlation Coefficients

    DETECTION OF CHANGE IN MOMENTS
    Graphical Analysis
    The Sign Test
    Two-Sample t-Test
    Mann-Whitney Test
    The t-Test for Two Related Samples
    The Walsh Test
    Wilcoxan Matched-Pairs, Signed-Ranks Test
    One-Sample Chi-Square Test
    Two-Sample F-Test
    Siegel-Tukey Test for Scale

    DETECTION OF CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION
    Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
    Kolmogorov-Smirnov One-Sample Test
    The Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test
    Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test

    MODELING CHANGE
    Conceptualization
    Model Formulation
    Model Calibration
    Model Verification
    Assessing Model Reliability

    HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION
    Computer Generation of Random Numbers
    Simulation of Discrete Random Variables
    Generation of Continuously Distributed Random Variates
    Applications of Simulation

    SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
    Mathematical Foundations of Sensitivity Analysis
    Time Variation of Sensitivity
    Sensitivity in Model Formulation
    Sensitivity and Data Error Analysis
    Sensitivity of Model Coefficients
    Watershed Change

    FREQUENCY ANALYSIS UNDER NONSTATIONARY LAND USE CONDITIONS
    Data Requirements
    Developing a Land-Use Time Series
    Modeling Issues
    Comparison of Flood Frequency Analyses
    Summary

    Appendix A: Statistical Tables
    Appendix B: Data Matrices

    References
    Index

    Each chapter begins with and Introduction and ends with a "Problems" Section

    Biography

    Richard H. McCuen