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Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting


About the Series

As engineering and construction projects get bigger, more ambitious and increasingly complex, the ability of organizations to work with realistic estimates of cost, risk or schedule has become fundamental.

And working with estimates requires technical and mathematical skills from the estimator but it also requires an understanding of the processes, the constraints, and the context by those making investment and planning decisions. You can only forecast the future with confidence if you understand the limitations of your forecast.

The Working Guides to Estimating introduce, explain and illustrate the variety and breadth of numerical techniques and models that are commonly used to build estimates. Alan Jones defines the formulae that underpin many of the techniques; offers justification and explanations, for those whose job it is to interpret the estimates; advice on pitfalls and shortcomings and worked examples. These are often tabular in form to allow you to reproduce the examples in Microsoft Excel. Graphical or pictorial figures are also frequently used to draw attention to particular points as the author advocates that you should always draw a picture before and after analysing data.

The five volumes in the Series provide expert applied advice for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering, based on the author’s thirty-something years’ experience as an estimator, project planner and controller.

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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

1st Edition

Alan R. Jones
September 20, 2018

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour...

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling

1st Edition

Alan R. Jones
September 10, 2018

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference...

Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves

Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves

1st Edition

Alan R. Jones
September 10, 2018

Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the...

Best Fit Lines & Curves: And Some Mathe-Magical Transformations

Best Fit Lines & Curves: And Some Mathe-Magical Transformations

1st Edition

Alan R. Jones
September 10, 2018

Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship...

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

1st Edition

Alan R. Jones
September 10, 2018

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (...

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