How can the industrialized countries reduce their vulnerability to supply disruptions caused by continued dependence on foreign sources of oil? How can access to Middle East oil be made more secure? These are the core questions that arise from a new worldwide energy situation in which the industrialized countries have remained dependent on oil and oil imports for their economic, political, and military well-being, while control of these resources has passed to an increasingly small number of less-developed countries whose interests do not automatically or necessarily coincide with those of the consuming, industrialized countries. With a focus on these questions, The Geopolitics of Energy analyzes the present worldwide energy situation and its likely evolution over the remainder of the century. The authors consider likely developments in coal, gas, and nuclear energy; the outlook for oil, which will remain the dominant energy source at least through the 1990s; and the implications of this energy outlook for U.S. foreign policy, intra-Western alliance relations, and North-South and East-West relations. Identifying the issues that will concern governments as long as the need for oil is pervasive-until alternative energy sources begin contributing significantly to world energy supply-the authors conclude with policy recommendations for the United States based on their analysis of the energy situation and its consequences. This book is based on a report prepared for the U.S. Department of Defense.
Table of Contents
Foreword -- Preface -- Background to Policy -- Introduction -- Highlights of the Contemporary Geopolitics of Energy -- Oil, 1977–2000 -- Coal, 1977–2000 -- Gas, 1977–2000 -- Nuclear Energy, 1977–2000 -- Import Dependence of Industrial States -- Governments and Enterprises in International Energy -- Summary and Overview -- Part Policy Options -- Considerations Affecting U.S. Energy Policy -- The Nature of the Threat: Emergency Situations -- The Nature of the Threat: Longer-Term Supply Security Measures -- Limiting Vulnerability: The Domestic Component -- Limiting Vulnerability: International Implications and Options -- Nuclear Energy -- Epilogue: Policy Recommendations -- Appendix