Terje Aven, Seth Guikema
November 1, 2017
by CRC Press
Reference - 224 Pages - 30 B/W Illustrations
ISBN 9781498700283 - CAT# K24513
Risk assessment for terrorist threats is a field of growing importance throughout the world. A number of different approaches and methods are used for terrorist risk assessment based on a variety of philosophically and practically different assumptions and starting points. However, the foundations of these approaches and methods are often poorly understood and poorly articulated by those conducting terrorist risk assessment, yet these issues underpin success in managing risk of terrorist attacks. This book contributes to an improved understanding and consideration of foundational issues underpinning assessment and management of terrorist risks.
Preliminary structure and chapter headings:
Challenges. What is terrorism risk?
Basic features of terrorist risk assessments and risk management
Methods: Fundamental Issues
Presentation of the foundations of the major methods for terrorist risk assessment, qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative.
2.1 Qualitative methods
2.2 Event and fault trees
2.3 Decision trees
2.4 Game theory
2.5 Robust methods and robust optimization
2.6 Agent-based modeling
2.7 Semi-quantitative methods broadening the considering of uncertainty
Discussion of examples of the use of the different methods
Discussion & Guidance
Discussion of the basis of the different methods and when each would be most applicable. An integrated approach.
The integrated approach suggested will be based on our perspective what terrorist risk is, as indicted above. Different tools can be used to describe the threats/attacks, their consequences and uncertainties, and how these should be used in the decision making context.
Fundamentals about probability, Bayesian assessment, game theory, risk perspectives
Small illustrating examples will be included for making concepts concrete and illustrate ideas and principles. These will largely be based on examples from the literature, including airport protection and infrastructure protection.