1st Edition
Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016)
Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.
1. Accelerated test design and analysis
Development of process for adaptive lifetime estimation of mechanical assemblies using accelerated testing methods
J.-P. Hietala, P. Ojala, P. Multanen, J. Miettinen & P. Saarenrinne
Optimal design for accelerated degradation tests with stochastic model uncertainty
L. Liu, X.-Y. Li, T.-M. Jiang & Jian-Guo Zhang
Optimization of the dental implant testing based on FEM simulation of fatigue and accelerated life
A. Müller, M. Hinz & S. Bracke
Multivariable accelerated testing of seep through of humidity due to vibration in electric connector
P. Ojala, J. Pippola, J.-P. Hietala, J. Miettinen, L. Frisk, P. Julkunen & E.-L. Varpe
Methodology of the accelerated life test of a temperature sensor
Z. Vintr & D. Vališ
The method of analyzing accelerated degradation data based on acceleration factor constant principle
Hao-WeiWang, K.N. Teng & B.L. Gai
Combining nonparametric predictive inference and power-Weibull model for accelerated life testing
Y. Yin, F.P.A. Coolen &T. Coolen-Maturi
Research on accelerated degradation test for GaAs solar cells in LEO environment
Yuanxin Zhang, X. Ma, HanWang & H. Jiang
2. Accident and incident investigation and modelling
2.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Different accident levels between offshore and onshore helicopter operations—a comparison of socio-technical systems
R.J. Bye, S.O. Johnsen & G. Lillehammer
2.2 Chemical process industry
CFD dispersion simulations of liquid argon releases in a deep underground large scale cryogenic installation
E.C. Marcoulaki, A.G. Venetsanos & I.A. Papazoglou
Investigation of crane operation safety by analysing main accident causes
M.F. Milazzo, G. Ancione, V. Spasojevic Brkic & D. Vališ
Accounting for wind direction and speed fluctuations on the prediction of flammable cloud dispersion
A.M. Schleder & M.R. Martins
Risk based workload and staffing level analysis
L. Kotek, Z. Tuma, P. Blecha & L. Mukhametzianova
2.3 Critical infrastructure
Cascading effects during incidents: CascEff
A. Lönnermark & D. Lange
2.4 Maritime transportation
Marine navigation accidents and influencing conditions: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident databases
A. Gilberg, E. Kleiven & R.J. Bye
The use of ‘big data’ in constructing loss-based performance indicators in the maritime industry
T. Kongsvik, R.J. Bye, P.G. Almklov & E. Kleiven
A discussion of risk influencing factors for maritime accidents based on investigation reports
M. Nilsen, P.G. Almklov, S. Haugen & R.J. Bye
TRACEr-MAR—applying TRACEr in a maritime context
J.-U. Schröder-Hinrichs, A. Graziano, G. Praetorius &A. Kataria
Some reflections on pre- and post-accident analysis for water transport: A case study of the Eastern Star accident
Y.Wang, E. Zio, S. Fu, D. Zhang & X.P. Yan
2.5 Nuclear industry
Use of level 2 PSA to support NPP operators training on severe accident
P. Groudev, P. Petrova, E. Kichev & K. Mancheva
Accident progression and radiological analyses of the interfacing system loss of coolant accident for a typical pressurized water reactor
S.Y. Park & K.I. Ahn
Accident measures feasibility study based on context evaluation of human performance in design extension conditions
G. Petkov & I. Petkov
2.6 Oil and gas industry
Improving accident investigation by evaluating the pre-accident risk assessment and management from a fundamental risk perspective
K. Bjørnsen &T. Aven
Accident risk assessment of refineries depending on configuration and geographic location
P. Burgherr, M. Spada, A. Kalinina, P. Eckle &Y. Pannatier
Analysis of dynamic positioning system accidents and incidents with emphasis on root causes and barrier failures
Y. Dong, B. Rokseth, J.E. Vinnem & I.B. Utne
Explaining the explosion onboard FPSO Cidade de São Mateus from regulatory point of view
C. Morais, A. Garcia, B. Silva, N. Ferreira &T. Pires
CFD simulation of a time varying release of LPG in geometrical complex environment
M. Pontiggia, M. Gerbec, J. Sužnik, M. Sbaouni & R. Lelong
Assessing the consequences of accidental releases from sour oil and gas facilities
C.G. Robinson &A.R. Halford
Perspective and criticalities of CFD modelling for the analysis of oil and gas offshore accident scenarios
A.C. Uggenti, A. Carpignano, L. Savoldi, R. Zanino & F. Ganci
2.7 Road transportation
Variables influencing the severity of motorcycle and moped traffic accidents in Spain
S. García-Herrero, M.A. Mariscal, R. Beltrán & J.M. Guitérrez
Preliminary analysis of accident data of one of the BRT lines in Mexico City
V. Ávalos-Bravo, D. Padilla-Pérez & J.R. Santos-Reyes
2.8 Other industries
Analyses of social accidents and culture: A discussion of the geopolitical migration
S. Ávila Filho, M.N.E. Fonseca & E.S. Bittencourt
Assessment of an accident using FMEA to a tailings dam, a mining event in Brazil
M.N.E. Fonseca & S. Ávila Filho
Learning from accidents: Investigating the genesis of human errors in multi-attribute settings to improve the organisation of design
R. Moura, M. Beer, E. Patelli, J. Lewis & F. Knoll
3. Analysis of natural hazards
3.1 Civil engineering/built environment
Earthquake preparation and risk perception: The case of high school students in Mexico City
T. Gouzeva, G. Santos-Reyes & J.R. Santos-Reyes
Quantification of evolving regional vulnerability to hurricanes
A. Reilly, S. Guikema, J. Garzon Hervas & C. Ferreira
Seismic risk analysis of the Italian built environment at territorial scale
A. Rasulo, M.A. Fortuna, G. Modoni & B. Borzi
3.2 Other industries
Propagating spatial and thematic uncertainties in mountain natural hazard assessment process
G. Dupouy, J.M. Tacnet, F. Bourrier, F. Berger, N. Crimier, K. Mekhnacha, M. Memier & E. Moulet-Vargas
How risk perception of natural hazards influences the content of risk and vulnerability analyses and the implementation of risk reduction measures
M. Leonhardsen, K.H. Olsen & O.E. Olsen
Modeling information quality and traceability in risk management and decision processes: Application to mountain natural hazards
L. Vidaud-Barral, J.M. Tacnet & F. Pinet
4. Bayesian models and statistical methods
Generalized method of moments for an extended gamma process
Z. Al Masry, S. Mercier & G. Verdier
Bayesian model calibration using subset simulation
Z.T. Gong, F.A. DiazDelaO & M. Beer
Small data and conflicting information
U. Sahlin
Sensitivity analysis for Bayesian networks with interval probabilities
S. Tolo, E. Patelli & M. Beer
New methods for the availability prediction with confidence level
P. Zeiler, F. Müller & B. Bertsche
4.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Application of Bayesian network in safety analysis on civil aircraft systems
HongliWang, D.M. Zhong &T.D. Zhao
An attempt to determine the lifetime distribution of a device for random function forms of expected value and variance of the Gaussian distribution
M. Zieja, M. Jasztal, S. Ste˛pie´n & M.Wa˙zny
4.2 Civil engineering/built environment
Approaches to Bayesian network structure elicitation
K. Zwirglmaier & D. Straub
4.3 Information technology and telecommunication
A Bayesian network for diagnosis of networked mobile robots
I. Sassi, A. Gouin & J.M. Thiriet
4.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Risk analysis of supply: Comparative performance and short-term prediction
L.Walls, J. Quigley, M. Parsa & E. Comrie
4.5 Maritime transportation
Quantifying error in deterministic predictions based on phase-resolved linear wave models
F. Fucile, G. Bulian & C. Lugni
Regression models for the effect of environmental conditions on the efficiency of ship machinery systems
E. Vanem, A. Brandsæter & O. Gramstad
4.6 Mechanical systems and engineering
Methodological framework for estimation of failure rates for various high-voltage battery systems
T. Lehmann, O. Özgen & J. Keller
Reliability evaluation ofWiener degradation system based on Bayesian network
S. Miao, J. Yao, Y. Zhao, XiaohongWang, XiaohuiWang & X. Li
4.7 Nuclear industry
The use of structured expert judgment methods to aid in parameter estimations for data sparse problems
F. Brandford-Adams &A.B. El-Shanawany
4.8 Oil and gas industry
Reliability analysis and surrogate modelling of biodiesel filters
P.O. Hristov, F.A. DiazDelaO, K.J. Kubiak & U. Farooq
Asset integrity case development for normally unattended offshore installations: Bayesian network modelling
S. Loughney, J.Wang, D. Lau & D. Minty
Using Bayesian networks to quantify the reliability of a subsea system in the early design
Juntao Zhang, Yiliu Liu, M.A. Lundteigen & L. Bouillaut
4.9 Power and energy systems
A Bayesian hierarchical modelling for hydropower risk assessment
A. Kalinina, M. Spada, P. Burgherr, S. Marelli & B. Sudret
Physics-driven Bayesian model for current-voltage characteristics of solar cells
Y. Kong, Z.Ye & Z. Li
Demand forecasting over complex geographical networks: The case of Northern Gas Networks
K.J.Wilson, S.E. Heaps & M. Farrow
4.10 Road transportation
Development of tools for road infrastructure safety management for the provinces (voivodeships) in Poland
J.Wachnicka,W. Kustra, K. Jamroz & M. Budzy´nski
5. Crisis and emergency management
Planning and conducting crisis management exercises—what works and what does not?
T. Grunnan & H. Fridheim
How well do capability assessments reflect actual capability? An experimental study of capability assessments with multi-actor dependencies
M. Hanson, S. Severinsen & H. Lindbom
Toward an empirical clarification of societal safety and societal security—preliminary findings from interviews with leaders and key stakeholders in Norway
S. Høyland & K.A. Pettersen
Security culture—a sufficient explanation for a terrorist attack?
S.H. Jore
Risk management and social innovation: The example of the outage organization in a high risk industry
O. Guillaume & N. Lot
Challenges of measuring quality in emergency response
J.E. Lynette
A method for analysing security threats in operational risk analysis and management
S. Malerud & H. Fridheim
The (European) Union civil protection mechanism: A reliable crisis governance tool?
C. Morsut & B.I. Kruke
Scenario approaches as a means of handling emerging risks in society
E. Okstad
5.1 Critical infrastructure
Moving through crisis and resilience: An activity-centred CONOPs of CI organisations
M. Cooke & E. Murphy
Take it to the limits! Exploring the hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabilities of society
T.O. Grøtan & S. Antonsen
Risk-based investment allocation for infrastructure networks
S. Kunttu, T. Välisalo & J. Pirttimäki
Barriers that hamper the efficiency of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in critical infrastructure protection
P. Marana, L. Labaka & J.M. Sarriegi
Toward resilient organization: Strengthening performance management in an era of turbulent change
R. Steen &T. Tangenes
Emergency management involving critical infrastructure disruptions: Operationalizing the deployment of resilience capabilities
P. Trucco, B. Petrenj, I. Kozine & H.B. Andersen
Possibilities of critical infrastructure protection against terrorism
M. Vašková, J. Barta & J. Johanidesová
An integrated framework for business continuity management of critical infrastructures
J. Xing & E. Zio
5.2 Maritime transportation
Development of a new evacuation simulation tool targeting real-time participation
G. Montecchiari, G. Bulian & P. Gallina
6. Decision making under uncertainty and expressing uncertainty
6.1 Civil engineering/built environment
Towards a risk management prototype for small and medium enterprises in the construction sector
A.E. Tamparopoulos & C. Oduoza
6.2 Critical infrastructure
Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: A fuzzy programming approach
Y.-P. Fang & G. Sansavini
Recovery of urban socio-technical systems after disaster: Reactive decision-making based planning under uncertainties of damage evaluation
V. Lubashevskiy, T. Kanno & K. Furuta
6.3 Information technology and telecommunication
Application and simulations of uncertainty multilevel models to ensure the ITS services
M. Stawowy & M. Siergiejczyk
6.4 Maritime transportation
Risk analysis of falsified automatic identification system for the improvement of maritime traffic safety
C. Iphar, A. Napoli, C. Ray, E. Alincourt & D. Brosset
6.5 Nuclear industry
A methodological framework to analyse coping based on the testimony of the Director of the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear power plant
A. Afrouss, A. Portelli & F. Guarnieri
Uncertainty and conservatism in safety cases
A. Bounds
6.6 Oil and gas industry
Uncertainty analysis incorporated to lifecycle cost analysis in the oil and gas industry
V. Borges
How to manage uncertainty when considering new or changed regulatory HSE requirements
L.I.K. Soerskaar & E.B. Abrahamsen
Risk assessments as input to decision making during design of oil and gas installations
V.L. Tuft, O.M.Wiggen, A.O. Torgauten, T.M. van Roosmalen, T. Holde, M. Sandøy &T. Aven
6.7 Power and energy systems
The ‘discrete forecast error scenarios’ method for grid reliability assessment in short-term planning under renewable generation and cross-border flows
G. Dogan, P.-E. Labeau, J.-C. Maun, J. Sprooten, M. Galvez & K. Sleurs
Planning cable installation activities for offshore wind farms including risk of supply delays
G. Leontaris, O. Morales-Nápoles &A.R.M.Wolfert
Modelling of uncertainty for continuity quality of power supply
M. Siergiejczyk & M. Stawowy
6.8 Rail transportation
How (not) to work with small probabilities: Evaluating the individual risk of railway transport
R. Andrášik, M. Bíl & R. Slovák
7. Dynamic reliability and probabilistic safety/risk analysis
7.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Reliability analysis for the process of DIMA dynamic reconfiguration
H.Y. Ju, S.Wang &T.D. Zhao
7.2 Maritime transportation
Dynamic risk and reliability assessment for ship machinery decision making
K. Dikis, I. Lazakis, A.L. Michala, Y. Raptodimos & G. Theotokatos
Imminent ships collision risk assessment based on velocity obstacle
Y. Huang, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder & M.B. Mendel
7.3 Mechanical systems and engineering
Statistical analysis of field data for a proven-in-use assessment according to ISO 13849
N. Nowizki, P. Zeiler, B. Bertsche & H. Moedden
7.4 Nuclear industry
MCDET analysis: From input specification of uncertainties to the probabilistic evaluation of critical variables of dynamic systems
N. Berner & J. Scheuer
Dynamic features in large PSA studies
Y. Butkova, H. Hermanns, O. Bäckström, P. Krcal &W.Wang
Shutdown probabilistic safety assessment—method and results
M. Cˇepin & M. Antoncˇicˇ
Application of PRA for the assessment of defence-in-depth of a nuclear power plant
J.-E. Holmberg, O. Bäckström, M. Porthin &T. Tyrväinen
Dynamic reliability assessment and prognostics with monitored data for multiple dependent degradation components
J. Liu & E. Zio
7.5 Oil and gas industry
Real-time guidance system for cranes to manage risks due to releases of hazardous materials
G. Ancione, I. Kavasidis, G. Merlino & M.F. Milazzo
Resistance-based probabilistic design by order statistics for an oil and gas deep-water well casing string affected by wear during kick load
F. Di Maio, P. Baraldi, L. Brivio, E. Zio & C. Magno
Barrier indicators vs risk—informing operational risk management
A. Falck, R. Flage &T. Aven
Dynamic risk analysis for operational decision support
S. Haugen & N.J. Edwin
Aggregation and presentation of safety barrier status information
Å.S. Hoem, K. Øien, S. Hauge & L. Bodsberg
Interval estimation for degradation modeling of emerging contaminants based on multi-dimensionalWiener processes
L. Hong, Z. Ye & R. Ling
Application of Bayesian network to safety assessment of chemical plants during fire-induced domino effects
N. Khakzad, G. Reniers & G. Landucci
Monitoring of operational and organizational safety barriers
S.S. Kilskar, K. Øien, S. Hauge, Å.S. Hoem & L. Bodsberg
Reliability study of subsurface safety valve control system in oil wells
P.G.O. Oliveira, A. Braga & P.A.A. Garcia
A case of dynamic risk management in the subarctic region
N. Paltrinieri, T.O. Grøtan, M. Bucelli & G. Landucci
A dynamic evaluation methodology of risk level for defective high-pressure manifold
Q.Wang, L. Zhang, J. Hu, X. Zhang &W. He
7.6 Power and energy systems
Stochastic hybrid fault tree automaton for the production forecast of PV power plant
F. Famoso, F. Chiacchio, S. Brusca & D. D’Urso
7.7 Rail transportation
An importance measure based multi-state reliability and risk analysis for the subways
N. Ali, S. Si, M. An & L. ChangChun
Correlating train performance data with safety incidents: A preliminary case study for improving the understanding of the effects from train delay on safety risk across the GB rail network
C. Harrison & R.Weltz
8. Foundational issues in risk
Using an AFD threat identification-based approach to generate risk-reducing measures
A. Jensen &T. Aven
Safety and security—is there a need for an integrated approach?
S.H. Jore
Methodology for security risk assessments—is there a best practice?
M. Maal, O. Busmundrud & M. Endregard
A combined semantic and quantitative risk analysis approach: VBS/causality DL
G. Edwadr, F. Innamorati, M. Sallak & D. Lourdeaux
Qualitative versus quantitative risk assessment
F. Ye
9. Human factors and human reliability analysis
Consolidation of the human error assessment and reduction technique
J.C.Williams & J.L. Bell
9.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Preparing for human spaceflight to the Moon 2020–2030
T.M. Stene, B.E. Danielsen & D. Trevisani
9.2 Chemical process industry
Analysis of cognitive gaps: Training program in the sulfuric acid plant
S. Ávila Filho, M.N.E. Fonseca, A.L.A. Santos & C.N. Santino
9.3 Civil engineering/built environment
Performance shaping factors for human error analysis in construction projects
C. Bletsios, M. Papanikolaou &Y. Xenidis
9.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Evaluation method of the waste processing system operation
R. Giel, M. Mły´nczak & M. Plewa
Modification of the HRA-method ESAT for improving human reliability in manual assembly
C. Kern & R. Refflinghaus
9.5 Maritime transportation
Establishing a central operation approval system in ship management companies based on a human reliability assessment model
O. Soner, E. Akyuz & M. Celik
Human reliability analysis of seafarers using CREAM method—the case of tanker shipping
Q. Zhou, Y.D.Wong, H. Xu &V. Van Thai
9.6 Mechanical systems and engineering
Human error probability estimation of maintenance activities in cold operating environment based on Bayesian network
Y.Z. Ayele &A. Barabadi
9.7 Nuclear industry
Rationalisation and updating of data on selected performance shaping factors
L.K. Ainsworth
As Low As Reasonable Assessment (ALARA): Applying discount usability to control room verification and validation
R.L. Boring
GOMS-HRA: A method for treating subtasks in dynamic human reliability analysis
R.L. Boring & M. Rasmussen
Quantifying human reliability analysis BBNs from partial information: Combining operational event analyses and expert judgment
L. Podofillini, L. Mkrtchyan &V.N. Dang
The implementation of complexity in computation-based human reliability analysis
M. Rasmussen & R.L. Boring
Advanced thermal hydraulic simulations for human reliability analysis
V. Rychkov, B. Brocard & K. Dawson
9.8 Oil and gas industry
Quantification of Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) in maintenance tasks: Case study in a petrochemical plant
M. Jahangiri, N. Hoboubi & P. Farhadi
Experience and training as performance-shaping factors in human reliability analysis
K. Laumann & M. Rasmussen
Decomposition level of quantification in human reliability analysis
M. Rasmussen & K. Laumann
On use of the international standard ISO 14224 on reliability data collection in the oil and gas industry: How to consider failure causes from a human error perspective
J.T. Selvik & L.J. Bellamy
Human reliability in the petroleum industry: A case study of the Petro-HRA method
C. Taylor, S. Øie & N. Paltrinieri
9.9 Road transportation
Theoretical learning outcome of night driving. A comparison study of traditional real life training and simulator training
R. Robertsen, G.B. Sætren, P. Haukeberg & H. Sivertsen
9.10 Software systems
Attack tree analysis
D.R.Wiseman
10. Maintenance modelling and applications
10.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Development of unmanned aerial vehicles maintenance strategy under an asset management framework
P. Gonçalves, J. Sobral & L.A. Ferreira
The maintainability analysis and conceptual design of On-Orbit Service (OOS) system for space station
Z. Guo, D. Zhou & X. Zhou
10.2 Civil engineering/built environment
Inspection and maintenance optimization for OWT’s using Bayesian networks
W.M.G. Courage, M.P. Nicoreac & P.L. Kempker
10.3 Critical infrastructure
Perspective renewal model for water distributions systems
K. Pietrucha-Urbanik, D. Vališ & Z. Vintr
Bayesian network models for making maintenance decisions from data and expert judgment
H. Zhang & D.W.R. Marsh
10.4 Electronics and electrical engineering
A cost-benefit approach for the evaluation of prognostics-updated maintenance strategies in complex dynamic systems
J.I. Aizpurua, V.M. Catterson, F. Chiacchio & D. D’Urso
10.5 Information technology and telecommunication
A critical review of Information Assurance (IA) framework for condition-based maintenance of railway tracks
Y.K. Al-Douri & P. Tretten
10.6 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Repairable items inventory optimization based on maintenance data and risk criteria
J. Sobral & C. Guedes Soares
10.7 Mechanical systems and engineering
Generalized renewal process based on the q-Weibull distribution for reliability applications
T.L. Corrêa, I.D. Lins, M.J.C. Moura & E. López Droguett
A preventive replacement scheduling model for multi-component system with lifetime limited components
J.X. Hou, Y.L. Qian, L. Li & X.S.Wen
Reliability assessment methodology for multiproduct and flexible industrial process
F. Kristjanpoller, A. Crespo, M. López-Campos, P. Viveros &T. Grubessich
Managing failures of spares and standby equipment
M.D. Norris
10.8 Nuclear industry
Availability modelling of ageing equipment addressing multiple items and failure causes
P. Martorell, I. Martón, S. Carlos, S. Martorell &A.I. Sánchez
10.9 Oil and gas industry
Condition-based maintenance for a system with redundancy and load sharing
M.C.A. Olde Keizer, R.H. Teunter & J. Veldman
Assessment of a condition-based maintenance policy for Subsea systems: A preliminary study
Yun Zhang, A. Barros &A. Rauzy
10.10 Power and energy systems
Forecasting for day-ahead offshore maintenance scheduling under uncertainty
J. Browell, I. Dinwoodie & D. McMillan
Time series semi-Markov decision process with variable costs for maintenance planning
R. Dawid, D. McMillan & M. Revie
Development of a condition monitoring system for an articulated wave energy converter by FMEA
C.J. Kenny, D. Findlay, I. Lazakis, J. Shek & P.R. Thies
VME a tool for probabilistic models valuation in engineering asset management
J. Lonchampt
10.11 Rail transportation
A risk-based model for inspection and maintenance of railway rolling stock
F. Dinmohammadi, B. Alkali & M. Shafiee
10.12 Road transportation
As good as looking new maintenances
Y. Dijoux, A. Grall & S.H. Le
10.13 Other industries
Selective maintenance for multi mission oriented systems
L.F.A. Ribeiro, C.A.V. Cavalcante &T.F.O. Rodriguez
General framework about graphical analysis for overall effectiveness management
P. Viveros, A. Crespo, F. Kristjanpoller, R. Stegmaier, E. Johns, T. Grubessich & L. Barberá
11. Management, governance, regulation and standards
11.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Whose risk: Tools for strategic risk management in complex organisations and systems—identifying a wood by summing the trees
A.D. Bain
Analyzing safety strategies at the front-end of projects
K. Fossum, B.E. Danielsen & C.H. Berg
What is the value of a standard?
M. Revie, T. Bedford, L.Walls, J. Shimell &T. Baldwin
11.2 Chemical process industry
Integrated management systems as a risk management tool: Combining ISO 9001, ISO 14001 & OHSAS 18001 standards in process industries
F.C. Emetumah
11.3 Civil engineering/built environment
Adaptation with small steps or a big step? A probabilistic approach of flood risk reduction in the Dutch Delta
J. Dokter, T. Botterhuis, M. Kok & H. VanWaveren
11.4 Critical infrastructure
Case studies of risk governance—a literature review
B. Arvidsson &A. Cedergren
11.5 Nuclear industry
Implementation of improvements to achieve a risk that is As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP), As Soon As Reasonably Practicable (ASARP)
A. Bounds
Reliability requirements and use of risk applications for the reliability program in Canadian nuclear power plants
U. Menon, C. Morin &Y. Akl
11.6 Oil and gas industry
Techno-economic feasibility assessment of life extension decision for safety critical assets
I. Animah, M. Shafiee, N. Simms & M. Considine
Performance-based regulation of HSE and the role of regulatory guidance
Ø. Dahl, R. Rosness & U. Forseth
Dynamic barrier management
M. Fisher, S. Greenfield, H. Flotaker, A. Stokke & R. Pitblado
Criteria for implementation of risk analysis recommendations in oil and gas offshore production installations
C. Morais, E. Correia, A. Bravim & N. Ferreira
Optimizing process safety performance by improving visibility of safety management system barriers
E. Paton & D. Holland
Implications of a new perspective of risk in the Norwegian petroleum regulation
M. Roeyksund, O.A. Engen &T. Aven
Trapped by compliance? The voices of the regulator
R. Rosness, Ø. Dahl & U. Forseth
11.7 Rail transportation
The use of design targets in harmonisation of safety management in the European rail industry
D.J.K. Griffin & G. Bearfield
Risk management plan for metro station safe operation
T. Kertis & D. Prochazkova
The potential of ontologies for safety and risk analysis
C. van Gulijk, P. Hughes & M. Figueres-Esteban
11.8 Other industries
Reliability capability assessment of cooperative networks using the example of developing demonstrators of structured materials
F.V. Haase, M. Reinhold, R.Woll, M.Wolf & H. Seidlitz
Design for reliability and safety, supported by international standards
V. Loll
Moving forward or back? Changes in Norway’s risk governance strategy following the 2011 Oslo terror attacks
M. Nilsen, P.G. Almklov, E. Albrechtsen & S. Antonsen
Risk assessment—experts vs. lay people
T. Stålhane &T. Malm
Cooperation across government services: The relation between the Norwegian police and the Norwegian armed forces in the aftermath of the terror attacks of July 22nd 2011
K.Wasilkiewicz, A. Øren & S.O. Johnsen
Passive safety applications in high consequence systems
Y.M. Xiong, L.Y. Xiao, Ying Liu &Youjian Zhang
12. Mathematical methods and computational algorithms
Reliability analysis of noncoherent systems based on logical differential calculus
M. Kvassay, E. Zaitseva, J. Kostolny &V. Levashenko
A fast tree-scanning algorithm finding a compact expression for the structure function of a system with known minimal path(cut)-sets
J. Malinowski
Automating compositional safety analysis using a failure type taxonomy for component fault trees
F. Möhrle, M. Zeller, K. Höfig, M. Rothfelder & P. Liggesmeyer
Control of technical objects operation quality with the use of simulation modeling PE
Ł. Mu´slewski, K. Migawa & L. Knopik
The use of rough set to estimate the quality of objects recognition and localization
M. Stawowy &T. Targosi´nski
12.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Pitot sensor airflow measurement accuracy
W. Ezzeddine, J. Schutz & N. Rezg
Comparison of different methods for calculation of aircraft structure failure probability per single flight
M.Woch & D. Vališ
Outline of the method for assessing fatigue life on the basis of crack length density function using the J-integral
M. Zieja, M. Jasztal, S. Ste˛pie´n & M.Wa˙zny
12.2 Civil engineering/built environment
Modelling of a bounded stochastic degradation process based on a transformed gamma process
Y. Deng & M.D. Pandey
Reliability analysis of offshore wind turbine support structures using Kriging models
A. Morató, S. Sriramula & N. Krishnan
Improved method to Calculate Additional Ramps Explicitly (CARE2) in quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels
R.M.L. Nelisse &A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder
12.3 Critical infrastructure
Hidden risks in electric grids due to dependency on transportation networks
R. Vodák, M. Bíl, Z. Kˇrivánková, R. Andrášik & J. Kubeˇcek
Problems connected with determination of size of maximum expected disaster in selected site
D. Prochazkova & J. Prochazka
12.4 Electronics and electrical engineering
Weighted-graph models for reliability assessment: Extension to multi-state systems
J.F. Aubry & N. Brînzei
On some limiting theorems for different types of redundant systems
H. Schäbe & I. Shubinski
12.5 Information technology and telecommunication
Advanced computing methodology for general highly reliable systems
R. Bri˘s & P. Byczanski
Handoff rate in mobile networks: Dependence on the cell perimeter
C. Tanguy
12.6 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
A new idea to remanufacture safety-related components with respect to reliability
A. Krini, D. Jörg, J. Krini, O. Krini & J. Börcsök
Algorithm for optimal paths in multi-objective network
N. Takahashi, H. Yamamoto, T. Akiba, X. Xiao & K. Shingyochi
A new reliability improvement program for repairable products sold with two-dimensional warranty
Y.K.Wang & Q. Yu
Reliability modelling of automated guided vehicles using Petri nets
R.D. Yan, S.J. Dunnett & L.M. Jackson
12.7 Mechanical systems and engineering
Model selection with application to gamma process and inverse Gaussian process
M. Zhang & M. Revie
12.8 Nuclear industry
A formal definition of minimal cut sequences for dynamic, repairable and reconfigurable systems
P.Y. Piriou, J.M. Faure & J.J. Lesage
12.9 Oil and gas industry
Imperfect versus incomplete testing: Implications for safety
A. Hafver, D.V. Lindberg, S. Eldevik, F.B. Pedersen, J. Domingues & L.F. Oliveira
Accidental underwater release of CO2—CFD modelling of the underwater plume and the subsequent above water gas dispersion
A. Huser, P. Vollestad, N. Rivedal, K. Armstrong, T. Bengherbia, G. Ferrara & M. van Essen
12.10 Power and energy systems
Boolean approximation for calculating the reliability of a very large repairable system with dependencies among components
M. Bouissou & O. Hernu
Supply reliability and dynamic safety analysis of an alternative energy supply chain
Z.N.L. Hansen, F. Markert, P. Jacobsen, A.S.T. Schmidt & E. Touray
Probabilistic failure law fitting with a differential evolution algorithm
J. Lonchampt, E. Dautreme & N. Bousquet
12.11 Rail transportation
Reliability and exploitation analysis of power supply of alarm systems used in railway objects
M. Siergiejczyk &A. Rosi´nski
12.12 Software systems
AGenTS: Automatic generation of component fault tree stubs
M. Zeller & K. Höfig
13. Monte Carlo simulation for reliability, availability, maintenance and safety applications
13.1 Critical infrastructure
Identification and ranking of important elements in a gas transmission network by using ProGasNet
P. Praks &V. Kopustinskas
13.2 Electronics and electrical engineering
Component importance measures for complex repairable system
G. Feng, E. Patelli, M. Beer & F.P.A. Coolen
13.3 Maritime transportation
An assessment approach of maritime supply chain of energy vulnerability to piracy risk by simulation of spatial behavior
M. Tanguy &A. Napoli
13.4 Mechanical systems and engineering
Development of two methods for the characterisation of an automotive fleet behaviour based on the simulation of single car rides
M. Hinz, F. Hienzsch & S. Bracke
The choice of failure distribution for modelling the reliability and availability of a multi-component system
J.K. Visser
13.5 Oil and gas industry
Complex decision support using advanced availability modelling techniques
M. Rogers
13.6 Power and energy systems
Speed-up reliability assessment for multi-component systems: Importance sampling adapted to piecewise deterministic Markovian processes
H. Chraibi, A. Dutfoy, T. Galtier & J. Garnier
Optimizing energy production systems under uncertainty
A.B. Huseby
Composite system reliability assessment of different active power reserve planning strategies using probabilistic methods
E. Okur & G. Sansavini
13.7 Road transportation
Traffic accident hotspots: Identifying the boundary between the signal and the noise
R. Andrášik & M. Bíl
13.8 Rail transportation
Extended Bow-Tie model for asset risk and reliability modelling. Application to a passenger lift
M. Vileiniskis & R. Remenyte-Prescott
14. Occupational health and safety
Will atypical working patterns become typical in the UK: What are the implications for occupational health and safety?
H.A. Beers
Design of organization and safety measures for the reclamation from friable asbestos of an industrial area in Italy
L. Fedele
Bayesian network analysis of the influence of labour market variables on accident rates of workers in Spain
J.R. López-García, M.A. Mariscal, S. García-Herrero & J.M. Gutiérrez
Analysis of economic and structural factors on occupational accidents using a generalized linear model: Example of application to Spain
V. Gallego, S. Martorell &A.I. Sánchez
14.1 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Synergies and trade-offs between OHS and productivity: An assessment method to support the design of new interventions
A. Rosti, P. Trucco & D. Masi
14.2 Oil and gas industry
A holistic approach to safety management in offshore oil and gas industry
D. Botheju & K. Abeysinghe
Models and tools for the simulation of exhaust dispersion in oil and gas offshore platforms
M. Impalà, A.C. Uggenti, R. Gerboni & F. Ganci
14.3 Road transportation
Health risk assessment of heavy metals from transport
M. Naplavova, F. Bozek, T. Kurek, J. Huzlik, I. Hoza & M. Pondelicek
Working in partnership to address the risks of transporting goods by road
N.C. Day
15. Optimisation methods for reliability, availability, maintenance and safety applications
15.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
An industrial implementation of an optimization based method for balancing safety, reliability and weight of aircraft systems
C. Johansson, M. Derelöv, J. Ölvander, J. Bergström & H. Nilsson-Sundén
Reliability-based structural design optimization of a double-stage swirler
X. Liu, M. Huang, J. Yi & J. Xue
Arc-tracking and non-electrical fire considerations in helicopter environment
N. Verité & S. Bailly
Reliability modeling and optimization of the spray process for seal coatings on the aero-engine compressor casing
J. Xue, M. Huang, J. Yi & X. Liu
15.2 Critical infrastructure
Robust portfolio modelling methodological approach to GB gas grid risk analysis via a simplified network version
T. Sacco, G. Sansavini, M. Compare & E. Zio
15.3 Electronics and electrical engineering
Availability of distributed systems: A new paradigm
A. Segal &Y. Bot
15.4 Maritime transportation
Sources of structural failure in ship unloaders
G. Milana, K. Banisoleiman &A. Gonzalez
15.5 Power and energy systems
Dependability optimization of process-level protection in an IEC-61850-based substation
A. Altaher, S. Mocanu & J.M. Thiriet
15.6 Oil and gas industry
Bayesian approach for safety barrier portfolio optimization
A. Mancuso, M. Compare, A. Salo & E. Zio
Application of an integrated stochastic optimization and GIS framework to the design of a real scale crude oil pipeline system
E.C. Marcoulaki, A. Skretas & S. Gyftakis
Integrating reliability and maintenance methodologies to improve asset availability
A. Segal &Y. Bot
15.7 Rail transportation
Safety margins for the reconfigurations of trains’ compositions in motion
M. Pawlik
European rail transport management system mobile transmission safety analysis
M. Pawlik, M. Siergiejczyk & S. Gago
16. Organisational factors, safety culture and socio-technical modelling
16.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Corn flakes and safety culture improvement
E. Jacob, A. German & M. Shermon
Safety systems in product safety culture
L. Suhanyiova, R. Flin &A. Irwin
16.2 Agriculture and food industry
Organisational safety indicators in aquaculture—a preliminary study
I.M. Holmen, I.B. Utne & S. Haugen
Vulnerability assessment of passenger transport system—case study
A. Górecka, M. Nowakowska &A. Tubis
16.3 Civil engineering/built environment
A study on successful practices in a Norwegian company—a systematic approach and key contributing factors
A. Ekambaram, T.M. Stene, M. Hamre &T.O. Stupstad
16.4 Critical infrastructure
Operational improvement of systems and processes at critical infrastructure detection check sites
J.F. Urbanek, J. Johanidesová, J.J. Urbanek & J. Barta
16.5 Healthcare
Safety leadership influence on patient safety and the mediating role of unit safety climate
E. Olsen & M.T. Jensen
16.6 Information technology and telecommunication
General framework methodology to increase organizational learning in the field of asset management
T. Grubessich, P. Viveros, R. Stegmaier, F. Kristjanpoller, V. González-Prida & F. Pérès
16.7 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Impact of experiential learning on safety climate: A case study
P. Cocca, F. Marciano, M. Alberti, M. Lambri & D. Lorenzi
16.8 Maritime transportation
Identification and implementation of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for achieving safer and resilient passengers shipping operations
V. Arslan, R.E. Kurt, E. Comrie, O. Turan & L. DeWolff
Internationalization of domestic transportation systems and safety
R.J. Bye & G.M. Lamvik
16.9 Nuclear industry
Sociotechnical aspects in safety regulation in the high-risk industries
M. Ylönen & O.A. Engen
16.10 Oil and gas industry
Which types of leadership behaviors can promote safety in an interorganizational context?
V. Milch & K. Laumann
Economic crisis in the Norwegian offshore industry: How may it affect safety conditions offshore operations?
K. Skarholt, G.M. Lamvik, S. Antonsen, J. Røyrvik & J.R. Jonassen
16.11 Rail transportation
From negative statements to positive safety
P. Hughes, M. Figueres-Esteban & C. van Gulijk
16.12 Other industries
The failure of knowledge-based task performance—a study of the police emergency response during the 22/7 terror attacks in Norway
R.J. Bye, P.G. Almklov, O.M. Nyheim, A. Gilberg & S.O. Johnsen
Vulnerability and prevention of fatal fires
G. Gjøsund, P.G. Almklov, K. Halvorsen & K. Storesund
Evolution of the inspection of the industrial plants: Towards a “privatization” of the safety?
V. Sanseverino-Godfrin
17. Prognostics and diagnostics
17.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Proposal of a new simulated annealing model-based fault identification technique applied to flight control EM actuators
M.D.L. Dalla Vedova, A. Germanà & P. Maggiore
Fluctuation feature extraction of satellite telemetry data and on-orbit anomaly detection
L. Zheng, J. Guang &T. Shihan
Combustion engine condition estimation based on indirect diagnostics data
D. Vališ, K. Hasilová & L. Žák
17.2 Electronics and electrical engineering
Test and evaluation of a fuzzy diagnostic model for PEFC
B. Davies, L. Jackson & S.J. Dunnett
A method for storage status assessment of electronic devices by model-based prognostics
Y. Zhao, G. Fu & E. Zio
17.3 Maritime transportation
An intelligent fault diagnosis system on ship machinery systems based on support vector machine principles
U. Ozturk, K. Cicek & M. Celik
17.4 Mechanical systems and engineering
Probabilities in safety of machinery—risk reduction effects by combination of full enclosure and fault detection in the process
H. Moedden
Deterioration modelling of contact surfaces for a friction drive system
D.J. Rodriguez, J.J. Martinez & C. Berenguer
17.5 Oil and gas industry
Bayesian belief networks for fault detection and diagnostics of a three-phase separator
M. Vileniskis, R. Remenyte-Prescott, D. Rama & J.D. Andrews
17.6 Power and energy systems
Cluster analysis of condition monitoring data
O. Fink, L. Jenni, H.S. Nguyen, N. Ponnudurai, S. Subbiah & S. Turrin
Predicting remaining life of transmission tower steelwork components
M. Segovia, V.M. Catterson, A. Stuart, L. Johnston, H. Bain, R. McPhaden, R.Wylie &A. Hernandez
17.7 Rail transportation
Data driven RUL estimation of rolling stock using intelligent functional test
A.H.S. Garmabaki, A.M.N.D.B. Seneviratne, M. Ahmadi, A. Barabadi & U. Kumar
17.8 Road transportation
A switching ensemble approach for remaining useful life estimation of electrolytic capacitors
S. Al-Dahidi, F. Di Maio, P. Baraldi & E. Zio
17.9 Software systems
Software fault detection in control systems
A.H.S. Garmabaki,W. Birk & J. Lindström
18. Reliability databases, collection and analysis
18.1 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
A comparative study of two failure models in throughput analysis of production lines
L. Li, Y.L. Qian & K. Du
Studies on information subsystem operation in container terminal based on simple example
J. ´ Swieboda & M. Zaj¸ac
18.2 Oil and gas industry
Improvements in the UK offshore hydrocarbon release database
B.J. Bain, S.Wakefield & R.J. Borresen
A hazard-based predictive approach for onshore gas transmission pipelines using historical failures
K. Pesinis & K.F. Tee
18.3 Power and energy systems
Failure and repair data analysis of power distribution systems: A case study
M. Aliyari, A. Barabadi, R. Barababadi &A.H.S. Garmabaki
Assessment and estimation of energy power sources availability
D. Vališ, K. Hasilová & J. Leuchter
18.4 Other industries
Reliability analysis of product fleets based on operating data: Separation of risky fleet parts and partial risk prognosis
S. Sochacki, C. Rosebrock & S. Bracke
Integrated reliability analysis in task of emission production orders in ERP system: A case study on a company’s sports segment
M.N.E. Fonseca, P. Carvalho, R. Kalid & S. Ávila Filho
Description of reliability content by using the ReliaLibrary web-database
F.V. Haase, F.P. Geithner & R.Woll
19. Resilience modelling and assessment
Resilience modeling of multi-state degradation systems based on aggregated stochastic processes
S.J. Du, R. Kang, Z.G. Zeng & E. Zio
Review of methods for measuring societal resilience and how they address critical infrastructures
H. Hassel & J. Johansson
Pandemic landscape of new strains of society
A. Øren, T.O. Grøtan & Ø. Dahl
19.1 Chemical process industry
Probabilistic vulnerability analysis of process facilities to external acts of interference
F. Argenti, V. Cozzani, G. Landucci & G. Reniers
19.2 Critical infrastructure
Towards resilience operationalization in urban transport system: The RESOLUTE project approach
E. Bellini, P. Nesi, L. Coconea, E. Gaitanidou, P. Ferreira, A. Simoes &A. Candelieri
Modeling and resilience assessment of a telephone communication network
D. Chao, Y.Watanabe, T. Kanno & K. Furuta
Analytical resilience quantification for critical infrastructure and technical systems
J. Finger, S. Hasenstein, U. Siebold & I. Häring
Calibrated resilience landscapes of composite protection: Theoretical grounding of an empirical approach
T.O. Grøtan & J. Bergström
Applying resilience concepts in crisis management and critical infrastructures—the DARWIN project
I. Herrera, T.O. Grøtan, R.Woltjer, B. Nevhage, S. Nilsson, J. Trnka, B. Adini, O. Cohen, R. Forsberg & C.O. Jonson
Analysis and comparison of three measures for system resilience
C. Jin, R. Li, R. Kang &Y. Yang
Capturing societal interdependencies from a flow perspective—part I: Method and model
J. Johansson, H. Hassel & L. Svegrup
The population contribution in crisis management: A case of uncertainty and resilience
B.I. Kruke
Novel techniques and approaches for risk based application of resilience concepts to critical infrastructure: An introduction to the IMPROVER project
D. Lange & D. Honfi
Identification of the electricity blackout impacts on the environmental security
A. Oulehlova
Critical infrastructure resilience index
C. Pursiainen, B. Rød, G. Baker, D. Honfi & D. Lange
Capturing societal interdependencies from a flow perspective—part II: Application
L. Svegrup, J. Johansson & H. Hassel
19.3 Information technology and telecommunication
A method for assessing resilience of socio-technical IT-systems
F. Landegren, S.M. Sulaman, P. Möller, M. Höst & J. Johansson
19.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Logistic system resilience modelling—a dynamic, multiagent, service engineering oriented approach
L.A. Bukowski, J. Feliks & K. Majewska
19.5 Maritime transportation
Framework for quantitative resilience analysis of maritime transportation systems from risk perspectives: A case study of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters
S. Fu, D. Zhang, E. Zio, Y.Wang & X.P. Yan
Modeling epistemic uncertainty in resilience assessment for water transportation systems
Y.Wang, S. Fu, E. Zio, D. Zhang & X.P. Yan
19.6 Nuclear industry
Resilience activation in extreme situations: A literature review
C. Geoffroy, E. Rigaud & F. Guarnieri
19.7 Oil and gas industry
New strains—the emergence of cyber physical vulnerabilities
S.O. Johnsen
19.8 Rail transportation
Using gaming and resilience engineering principles to energize a situated resilience training of front-end operators and managers
T.O. Grøtan, I. Wærø, J.K.J. van der Vorm, F.A. van der Beek & D.C. Zuiderwijk
Vulnerability assessment of passenger transport system—case study
T. Nowakowski, A. Tubis & S.Werbi´nska-Wojciechowska
19.9 Other industries
Resilience assessment of internet of things: A case study on smart buildings
R. Mock, L. Lopez, Chr. Zipper & M. Schönenberger
Safety procedures at university campus: The implementation of evacuation exercises
A.L.A. Santos & M. Queirós
20. Risk and RAMS analysis applications
20.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
The Markov forecasting model of landing states based on flight data
C. Hu, S. Zhou, Y. Xie &W. Chang
Risk analysis of equipment system-of-systems architecture based on entropy and brittleness
Z. Jiang, X. Pan &Y. Lin
Aerospace product process FMEA technology and its application
F. Li, L. Ren, J. Lin, Z. Li & S. Lin
20.2 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems
Application of FRAM to risk assessment in manufacturing process
Z. Zheng & J. Tian
20.3 Maritime transportation
Effect of large initial ship stability on ship safety: An example study
G. Bulian, F. Bresciani, A. Francescutto & F. Fucile
20.4 Oil and gas industry
Evaluation of F&G detection coverage based on Norsok S-001
J.H. Park, T.Y. Lee, T.S. Choi, G.S. Kim, K.I. Nam & G. Mule
A qualitative analysis of the impact of permanent mooring system failures on FPSO production
N. Ramrattan &A. Monferini
20.5 Power and energy systems
Analysis framework for performance evaluation of reliability management in power systems with increased uncertainty
E. Heylen, G. Deconinck & D. Van Hertem
20.6 Rail transportation
Interfaces, functions and components based failure analysis for railway RAMS assessment
Q. Mahboob, B. Altmann & S. Zenglein
Systemic hazard identification using bow-tie approach
M. Mły´nczak
21. Software reliability models and safety assessment methods
21.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
A safety analysis method with correlation of states for integrated modular avionics systems based on an extended generalized stochastic Petri net
R. Han & S.Wang
21.2 Electronics and electrical engineering
Developing and assuring complex critical data centric systems
I.M. Glazebrook
21.3 Nuclear industry
Integrating model checking and PRA: A novel safety assessment approach for digital I&C systems
J. Lahtinen & K. Björkman
21.4 Software systems
An application for early safety assessment to bridge the gap between design and automated dependability assessment
F. Chiacchio, C. Romano, F. Merlo, D. D’Urso, L. Compagno, D. Parker, M.Walker, Y. Papadopoulos & G. Manno
Extended approach for the prediction of critical errors in software systems
J. Krini, O. Krini, A. Krini & J. Börcsök
Implementation of a cloud-based service-oriented architecture for hardware control systems supported by neural network
O. Latka & J. Provost
Reliability analysis of open source software: A Bayesian approach considering both fault detection and correction processes
Yu Liu, M. Xie, L.Wang & Q. Hu
AMDesigner: An architecture modeling tool for the use in multi-disciplinary design projects
M. Rajabalinejad & G.M. Bonnema
Software reliability prediction using chaos theory and heterogeneous ensemble learning
H. Tong, B. Liu, Y.Wu & B. Xu
Safe software: A suitable case for an evidence-based treatment?
K.R.Wallace
22. Structural reliability modelling
22.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Prediction of the P-S-N curve of mechanical component based on fatigue test data under random loading
Y.Wang, H. Cheng & L. Liu
22.2 Civil engineering/built environment
Assessment of structural reliability for punching
K. Jung & J. Markova
Analyses of imposed load models in current standards
J. Markova
Uncertainties in crack width verification of reinforced concrete structures
J. Markova & M. Sykora
Safety requirements for buildings under induced earthquakes due to gas extraction
R.D.J.M. Steenbergen &A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder
A novel damage detection approach using output-only responses based on mode shape identification and improved gapped smoothing method
Y. Zhou, J. He &W. Zhang
22.3 Mechanical systems and engineering
The probabilistic approach and its practical applications in medical and mechanical engineering
K. Frydrýšek
Reliability of components subjected to interacting corrosion and fatigue processes
B.J. Leira
The concept of a comparative assessment of the reliability of industrial gearboxes on the basis of diagnostic tests—a case study
M. Sokolski & P.M. Sokolski
Method of reliability assessment of pin joints in undercarriages of open-pit mining machinery—a case study
P.M. Sokolski
Condition monitoring and diagnostics as important factors for increasing the reliability of machinery components—case study
F.W. Przystupa, M. Sokolski & P.M. Sokolski
23. Systems reliability models and applications
Automatic generation of fault trees: A survey on methods and approaches
A. Berres & H. Schumann
Reliability and performance analysis of multi-state systems based on analytical load flow considerations
H. George-Williams, E. Patelli & M. Lee
Efficient availability assessment of reconfigurable complex multi-state systems with interdependencies
H. George-Williams & E. Patelli
Modeling dependent competing failure processes based on stochastic hybrid systems
M. Fan, R. Kang, Z.G. Zeng & E. Zio
23.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Modeling method of performance reliability for radar system based on parallel-in-weight model
J. Huang, A. Guo, Z. Ge & S. Zhang
The shape of things to come: A look at the different ways we approach predicting in-service reliability of new equipment
A. Mulholland
Evaluation of PFD of safety systems with time-dependent and test-step varying failure rates
L.F. Oliveira, J. Domingues, A. Hafver, D.V. Lindberg & F.B. Pedersen
Reliability modeling method of space mechanism considering coupling and cascading failure modes with hybrid uncertainty
P.D.Wang, Jian-Guo Zhang, J.Y. Sun, C.L. Tan &Yuqiang Liu
Numerical simulation on the fluctuation mechanism of instantaneous availability
Y. Yang, Y. Chen, Y.Q. Du & R. Kang
23.2 Civil engineering/built environment
Warranty analysis of a two-component system with failure interaction
N. Zhang, M. Fouladirad &A. Barros
Stochastic modelling of cascading failures in k-out-of-n system
H. Lee & J.H. Cha
23.3 Critical infrastructure
Analyzing controllability, efficiency and reliability of network systems by dynamic simulation
F. Han & E. Zio
Quantifying the importance of elements of a gas transmission network from topological, reliability and controllability perspectives, considering capacity constraints
F. Han, E. Zio, V. Kopustinskas & P. Praks
Component importance in infrastructure networks subject to spatially distributed hazards
A. Scherb, D. Straub, L. Garrè &Y. Yang
Risk and reliability assessment of the district heating network methodology with case study
I. Žutautait˙e, J. Augutis, R. Krikštolaitis, G. Dundulis, M. Valinˇcius & S. Rimkeviˇcius
23.4 Electronics and electrical engineering
Basic requirements for proven-in-use arguments
J. Braband & H. Schäbe
23.5 Information technology and telecommunication
Availability evaluation of the virtualized infrastructure manager in network function virtualization environments
M. Di Mauro, M. Longo, F. Postiglione, R. Restaino & M. Tambasco
23.6 Maritime transportation
Risk assessment of marine accidents in the Aegean Sea
I. Koromila, Z. Nivolianitou &T. Giannakopoulos
23.7 Mechanical systems and engineering
Safety and reliability of independent metering systems in mobile machinery
B. Beck & S.J.Weber
Error allocation for motion mechanism based on the kinematic accuracy reliability
X. Chen, X.-Y. Li, L. Liu & R. Kang
Reliability model of incomplete common cause failure systems subject to two kinds of common causes
R. Gu & J. Qin
Design-to-test: An approach to enhance testability of programmable controllers for critical systems—two case studies
C. Ma & J. Provost
Approach to analyse hydraulic or pneumatic control units
K. Pickard
Determination of reliability distributions and warranty costs based on qualitative quality assurance method
K. Pickard
Reliability evaluation of circular multi-state sliding window systems with bidirectional connecting abilities
J. Qin, R. Gu & J. Yang
23.8 Nuclear industry
Generic framework for the automated integration of impacts from hazards in PSA models
N. Berner & J. Herb
A new method for evaluation of the qualitative importance measures
A. Volkanovski &V. Matuzas
23.9 Oil and gas industry
New simulation model for evaluating the production availability of petroleum systems
C. Folleau, C. Vinuesa & S. Collas
Improving BOP reliability and availability through RAM analysis and expanded FMEA scope
K. Nouri, S.M. John & J. Alexander
Liquefaction technology from a reliability perspective
L. Tran, G. Cozon & C. Buccisano
Reliability assessment for subsea HIPPS valves with partial stroke testing
S.Wu, L. Zhang, S. Liu, Yiliu Liu, A. Barros & M.A. Lundteigen
Reliability analysis of gas turbine systems based on fault tree and Bayesian networks
Jiwang Zhang, L. Zhang, L. Duan & J.Wang
23.10 Power and energy systems
Risk and reliability assessment of future power systems
W.A. Bukhsh, K.R.W. Bell &T. Bedford
Assessing risks related to regional power distribution grids and security of electricity supply
E. Gramme &T. Eriksen
Impact of degraded communication on the reliability of electric networks: The application of grid splitting
D. Tian & G. Sansavini
23.11 Rail transportation
Decision making for railway operations using RAM analysis
C. Pistolas & G. Vernon
Experimental model of non-cohesive layers ground with reinforcement
A. Surowiecki & J. Ryczy´nski
23.12 Software systems
Redundancy handling with model-based systems engineering
N. Nguyen, F. Mhenni & J.Y. Choley
23.13 Other industries
Hazard and RAMS studies in a large telescope
S. Bellver, A. Pitigoi & P. Fernandez
24. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Uncertainty quantification in bow-tie analysis: A mixed approach of fuzzy theory with Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence
H. Abdo & J.-M. Flaus
An extended BDD method for the assessment of system reliability under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
A.J. Imakhlaf & M. Sallak
The variance-based importance measure analysis of the fuzzy failure criterion and its state dependent parameter solution
G.J. Li, Z.Z. Lu, C.Y. Xie & J. Qin
Fuzzy modeling of cardinal features of a complex technical system
M. Paja˛k
24.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence
Reliability analysis of cascade coupling space mechanism considering reliability influence factors and imperfect information
C.L. Tan, Yuqiang Liu, Jian-Guo Zhang, J.Y. Sun & P.D.Wang
Method for evaluation of the influence of LPV-200 procedures usage on the probability of CFIT
W. Kaleta & J. Skorupski
Fuzzy risk matrix as a tool for the analysis of the air traffic safety
J. Skorupski
24.2 Critical infrastructure
Imprecise probabilistic framework for power grids risk assessment and sensitivity analysis
R. Rocchetta & E. Patelli
Dimensionality reduction of the resilience model of a critical infrastructure network by means of elementary effects sensitivity analysis
P. Turati, N. Pedroni & E. Zio
24.3 Mechanical systems and engineering
Robust identification of low velocity impact events under different impactor stiffness
A. Beligni, C. Sbarufatti, A. Gilioli & M. Giglio
Uncertainty in process chains
O. Meyer, J. Keller & C.Weihs
24.4 Nuclear industry
Two interpretations of the risk increase factor definition
O. Bäckström, P. Krcal &W.Wang
State-of-the-art reactor consequence analyses project: Uncertainty analysis of a potential unmitigated short-term station blackout of the Surry nuclear power station
S.T. Ghosh, K.W. Ross, N.E. Bixler, S.J.Weber, C.J. Sallaberry & J.A. Jones
Development of advanced surveillance requirements of nuclear power plants using a risk-informed approach in the horizon 2020
S. Martorell, I. Martón, P. Martorell, J.F. Villanueva, S. Carlos, A.I. Sánchez & R. Mullor
A comparison between traditional BEPU and Extended-BEPU approaches for deterministic safety analysis on nuclear power plants
F. Sánchez–Sáez, S. Carlos, I. Martón, P. Martorell, J.F. Villanueva & S. Martorell
Gini out of the bottle: Global sensitivity analysis with distance correlation and energy statistics
E. Plischke & E. Borgonovo
A sensitivity analysis for the adequacy assessment of a multi-state physics modeling approach for reliability analysis
W.Wang, F. Di Maio & E. Zio
24.5 Power and energy systems
Evaluation of the impact of intermittent sources on smart grid equipments
D.N. Nguyen, E. Grall-Maës, P. Beauseroy, E. Deloux, Y. Dijoux & G. Malarange
25. Visualisation of risk
25.1 Critical infrastructure
Managing major hazard industry risk
I. Travers &A. Aitken
25.2 Maritime transportation
Visualizing and gauging collision risk
M.B. Mendel & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder
25.3 Mechanical systems and engineering
Reliability engineering in face of shorten product life cycles: Challenges, technique trends and method approaches to ensure product reliability
S. Bracke, M. Hinz, M. Inoue, E. Patelli, S. Kutz, H. Gottschalk, B. Ulutas, C. Hartl, P. Mörs & P. Bonnaud
25.4 Nuclear industry
Influence of trust in institutions on public acceptance of nuclear power from a historical context across nuclear countries
P. Mlejnkova, E. Patelli, C. Grundy & Z. Hodgson
25.5 Oil and gas industry
CATES (Consequence Assessment Tool for pipelines Emergency Situations)
O. Baldan, E. Funnemark, A. Huser & J. Ingvarson
Advanced risk visualization for the offshore industry
V. Mittal, V. Borges & K. Shaba
Basic approach to the risk assessment of natural gas pipelines
P. Fuchs, J. Kraus & J. Novák
Risk mapping in quantitative risk analysis for oil and gas facilities
G. Maggioli, R. Gerboni, A. Carpignano & F. Ganci
Multidimensional risk evaluation: Information visualization to support a decision-making process in the context of natural gas pipeline
C. Medeiros, M.H. Alencar, T.V. Garcez &A.T. de Almeida
25.6 Power and energy systems
A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions
J. Hanski &T. Rosqvist
25.7 Rail transportation
Ontology network analysis for safety learning in the railway domain
M. Figueres-Esteban, P. Hughes & C. van Gulijk
Biography
Lesley Walls is a Professor in the Department of Management Science at the University of Strathclyde, a Chartered Statistician and a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society. Her research interests include reliability modelling and risk analysis. Her work spans statistical methodology development and industry-facing applications. Lesley has been an Associate Editor of IEEE Transactions on Reliability and is a project leader for standards developed by the International Electrotechnical Committee on Dependability (IEC TC56).
Matthew Revie is a Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the University of Strathclyde. His research interests include reliability, availability and maintainability modelling, expert judgement and decision analysis. He has worked on over 25 applied research projects with more than 15 different organisations and has co-founded two industry facing research units. Matthew is on the editorial board of the IMechE Journal of Risk and Reliability, on the Board of Directors for the European Safety and Reliability Data Association, and a Fellow of the Operational Research Society.
Tim Bedford is Professor of Management Science and Associate Deputy Principal (Knowledge Exchange) at the University of Strathclyde. His research aims at combining fundamental theoretical advances - particularly around probability and consequence modelling - with applications to real-life problems. He holds an Honorary Doctorate in recognition of his work in risk analysis, from the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons, and has recently been elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland’s National Academy. Tim is a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society, a Fellow of the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, and a member of the Editorial Board of Reliability Engineering and System Safety.