Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making

Glenn Koller

May 17, 2000 by Chapman and Hall/CRC
Reference - 336 Pages
ISBN 9781584881674 - CAT# C1674


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  • Written in plain English and in an easy to read, narrative style - keeps statistical jargon to a minimum
  • Explains and exemplifies state-of-the-art risk-related technologies
  • Focuses on the value of opportunities and using value to rank and prioritize them
  • Presents real-world examples from a broad range of applications
  • Summary

    Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications.

    Decision/option selection Manufacturing
    Environmental assessment Pricing
    Identification of business drivers Production sharing
    Insurance Scheduling and optimization
    Investing Security

    Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems.

    The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure.

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