1st Edition

Navigating Strategic Decisions The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting

By John E. Triantis Copyright 2013
    435 Pages 63 B/W Illustrations
    by Productivity Press

    Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions.

    Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to:

    • Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects
    • Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications
    • Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices
    • Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty
    • Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers
    • Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected

    This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.

    Introduction
    Forecast Types and Their Evolution
    Why Are Good Forecasts and SDF Teams Needed?
    The Role of SDF Teams and Misconceptions
    Uniqueness of the Book and Benefits to the Reader
    Structure of the Book and Discussion Topics

    Strategic Decision Forecasting
    Forecaster Relationships
    Focus, Approach, and Methodology
    Processes and Practices
    Forecast Ownership and Accountability
    Organizational Factors
    Forecast Performance Measures
    Expectations, Analyses, and Functions
    Communications
    Skills and Qualifications
    Knowledge and Project Management

    The Promise of Strategic Decision Forecasting
    Definition of SDF
         What SDF Solutions Are Not Intended for
    Purpose and Objectives of SDF
    The Need for a New SDF Paradigm
    The Focus of SDF
    Universal SDF Process Components
    Common Uses of SDF Solutions
    SDF Team Charter and Structure
    The Role of Strategic Decision Forecasters
    The Uniqueness of SDF
    Benefits and Limitations of SDF

    A NEW PARADIGM FOR STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

    SDF Organization Business Definition
    The Mission of the SDF Team
    The Vision of the SDF Team
    SDF Team Principles and Values
    Project Stakeholders and Functional Links
    SDF Goals, Objectives, and Strategies Revisited
    Scope of SDF Team Activities and Support Provided
    SDF Team Governance
    Internal and External SDF Networks
    SDF Project and Knowledge Management
    SDF Performance Measures

    Culture, Mindset, Processes, and Principles
    SDF Team Culture
    SDF Mindset
    SDF Approach
    SDF Processes
    SDF Principles and Guidelines

    SDF Analytical Techniques and Tools
    SDF Analytical Concepts and Aids
    Anchoring of SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    SDF Forecasting Due Diligence
    Forecasting Due Diligence Techniques and Tools
    SDF Plan and Processes
    SDF Methods, Systems, and Implements

    SDF Assessment and Implementation Techniques
    Forecasting Function Project Management
    SDF Solutions, Options, and Recommendations
    SDF Performance Measures
    SDF Forecast Realization Plan
    Institutionalizing Learning and Knowledge

    STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING APPLICATIONS

    Corporate Policy and Strategy Evaluation
    The Current State and Causes of Failures
    Particular Needs and Challenges
    The Role of the SDF Team
    SDF Processes and Techniques 
         Corporate Strategy Evaluation 
         Corporate Policy Evaluation
    SDF Techniques and Tools
    Beneficial Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Examples of Useful Practices and Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    New Product Development
    Current State and Causes of Failures
    SDF Approach, Processes, and Techniques 
         Forecasting for New Product and Service Development 
         New Technology Development Forecasting
    SDF Team Analyses and Evaluations 
         Idea, Discovery, and Scoping Stage and Idea and Feasibility Screen 
         Business Case Stage and Go to Development and Testing Gate 
         Develop, Test, and Validate Stage and Go to Launch and Implement Gate 
         Post New Product Launch Review
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    New Market or Business Entry
    The Current State
    Special Needs, Issues, and Challenges
    SDF Approach and Processes
    SDF Analyses, Evaluations, and Techniques 
         SDF Analyses and Evaluations 
         SDF Techniques and Tools
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

    M&A and Joint Venture Projects
    The Current State
    M&A and JV Challenges and Issues
    SDF Approach and Processes
    SDF Tools and Techniques
    SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Product and Technology Licensing
    The Current State and Causes of Failures
    SDF Approach, Processes, and Evaluations 
         SDF Approach and Processes 
         SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    SDF Techniques and Tools 
         Quantitative Technological Forecasting Techniques 
         Judgmental Technological Forecasting Techniques 
         Integrative Technological Forecasting Techniques
    Success Factors and Beneficial Practices 
         Project Success Factors 
         Beneficial Practices

    Corporate Reorganizations and Turnarounds
    Current State and Causes of Failures
    SDF Approach and Techniques
    SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
          Sound Practices 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Uncertainty and Risk Management
    The Current State
    Unique Issues and Challenges
    SDF Approach and Techniques
    SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Major Capex and Project Financing
    Current State
    Particular Challenges and Issues
    SDF Approach and Participation
    SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Product Portfolio Management
    The Current State
    Particular Issues and Challenges
    SDF Approach and Processes
    SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    SDF Tools and Techniques
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Negotiations and Investor Relations Support
    Independent Validation and Verification
    Negotiations Support
    Investor Relations Support
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Future-State Realization Planning
    Current State, Issues, and Challenges
    SDF Approach, Processes, and Tools
    SDF Analyses and Evaluations
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    Business Cases, Plans, and Operational Targets
    Current State, Issues, and Challenges
    SDF Approach and Processes
    Business Case Support
    Business Plan Support
    Target Development Support
    Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
         Sound Practices and Success Factors 
         SDF Team Contributions

    IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

    Best-in-Class Strategic Forecasting Teams
    Governance of SDF Teams
    Forecaster Responsibilities and Qualifications
    Best-in-Class Attributes and Practices
    SDF Process and Principles
    SDF Performance Factors and Measures
    Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions

    SDF Organization Implementation Challenges
    Attitudes and Organizational Mindset
    Organizational Politics
    Broad Scope and Responsibilities
    Forecast Quality and Ownership of Forecast
    Organization Knowledge Gaps
    Availability of Qualified SDF Team Members
    Outsourcing of Strategic Decision Forecasts
    Management and Client Reassignments
    Resource Constraints and Cost–Benefit Considerations
    Implementing Processes and Performance Measures

    Summary and Conclusions
    Conditions for Successful SDF Applications
    Recurring Themes in Successful Strategic Projects
    Conclusions

    Bibliography
    Index

    Biography

    John E. Triantis

    "An indispensable guide for strategic project managers and a must book for strategic planners aspiring to advance their careers and become trusted advisors to decision makers, written by an expert in strategic decision forecasting as a comprehensive practical guide that lays the foundations toward competitive advantage. It will revolutionize your company’s strategic thinking by showing how to bring together methods, processes, and techniques toward sound analysis, evaluation, and forecasting for superior strategic decisions."
    —George S. Vozikis, PhD, Director, Institute for Family Business, Edward Reighard Endowed Chair for Management (ret.), Department of Management, Craig School of Business, California State University, Fresno

    "Already a published authority on managing successful acquisition and joint venture projects, John Triantis has now focused on marking out a realistic, yet crucial, role for strategic forecasters participating in strategic projects. Forecasters following his precepts will prove themselves indispensable to the project team, while at the same time contributing to reduced time to decisions, better/sounder decisions, and increased chances of realizing forecasted project values. This is a must book for forecasters aspiring to make a difference in the world of strategic project decisions."
    —John K. Hendricks, Former AT&T General Attorney, International M&A and Joint Ventures

    "Finally – a book that demonstrates the connection between the art and science of strategic forecasting and successful strategic projects is here! John Triantis uncovers the truths about strategic decisions to everyone in this field and is in the forefront of helping organizations understand the importance of and implement strategic forecasting. All forecasters and decision participants will benefit from John’s 40+ years of hands-on experience and practical insights."
    —Hu Song, MD, PhD, Director, Worldwide Business Insights, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, a Johnson & Johnson Company

    "Dr. John Triantis is the consummate translator of the vernacular strategic analysis. Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting is written for the professional who deals with both analysis and forecasting for strategic projects. His long experience in the real world allows him to draw from the things that have worked and enables him to make sound recommendations for industry analysts and forecasters. The reader will benefit immensely from the practical insights. The information presented is understandable and transparent. The strength of the book is that it is based on workable and practical methodologies and not theoretical concepts. An excellent book!"
    —D. H. Stamatis, Ph.D., CQE, CMfgE, MSSBB, President of Contemporary Consultants, Co., Professor of Economics and Statistics, ANHUI University of Finance and Economics in Bengbu, ANHUI, China

    "Managers too often predict demand emotionally despite the importance of the decisions being made as a result of good fact-based analysis. Subsequently, forecasts are often extrapolations of historical volume trends, rather than well-thought-out projections. This has been the accepted process for strategic forecasting and planning for the past 30 years. This is the first book that provides a proven framework for business executives to translate fact-based decisions into viable strategic forecasts."
    —Charles Chase, Principal Industry Consultant, Supply Chain Global Practice, SAS Institute Inc.

    "Understanding how to transform data into useful information is critical in a world of ever increasing noise. This is an essential reference book for organizations considering entering new markets, evaluating product portfolio mix, or developing new products. It serves as a comprehensive resource of the critical methods and techniques needed to enable strategic decisions."
    —Demetra Simos Paguio, Former Marketing and Sales Operations Manager, Ryerson

    "Overall, there is a lot of valuable information in Navigating Strategic Decisions and individuals involved in long-term planning for business growth, including new product development, will find this book to be a good reference. For extended discussion, this book was featured in The Innovator’s Book Club, a LinkedIn group."
    —Book Review by Teresa Jurgens-Kowal, PhD, NPDP, appearing on PDMA.org, June 16, 2015