April 5, 2018
by CRC Press
Reference - 225 Pages - 30 B/W Illustrations
ISBN 9780815354550 - CAT# K346221
March 28, 2018
by CRC Press
Reference - 225 Pages - 30 B/W Illustrations
ISBN 9781351132510 - CAT# KE57508
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1. Introduction: Probabilistic Modeling Approach in Aerospace Engineering
2. Fundamentals of Applied Probability
3. Helicopter-Landing-Ship and the Role of the Human Factor
4. Fundamentals of Probabilistic Aerospace Electronics Reliability Engineering
5. Probabilistic Assessment of an Aerospace Mission Outcome
6. The "Miracle-on-the-Hudson" Event: Quantitative Aftermath
7. "Two Men in a Cockpit": Likelihood of a Casualty If One of the Pilots Gets Incapacitated
8. Probabilistic Modeling of the Concept of Anticipation in Aviation
9. Double-Exponential Probability Distribution Function for the Human Nonfailure
"Reliability and safety have risen to the forefront of aerospace and avionic industry. Dr Suhir, a prolific author and a leading expert in probabilistic predictive modeling, has addressed the important aspects of the subject through adaptive probabilistic predictive modeling in human-in-the-loop situations approach. The book is a significant contribution to this field."
—Jennie S. Hwang, Ph.D., D.Sc., CEO, H-Technologies Group, New York, USA
"The author possesses extensive experience in probabilistic modeling of complex system. This book provides fundamental understanding and numerous real-life examples for human-system interactions in safety engineering for aerospace. This is one-of-a-kind book in this area, and gives readers an edge in human-in-the-loop probabilistic modeling of aerospace missions and extraordinary situations. In my judgement, application of methods and approaches suggested in this book will make a significant difference in the state-of-the-art in the field of aerospace ergonomics"
—Xuejun Fan, Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Lamar University, USA
"This book comprises much more knowledge and experience than what could be expected purely from the title. It compiles the major outcomes of scientific work of the author throughout decades and is based on his publications in high-ranked technical journals. One the one hand, the book provides a thorough introduction into the fundamentals of statistics. On the other, the author projects his thoughts on real-life situations with clearly described roles and functions of human in distinct situations and demonstrates in an impressing and unique way how to put these functions (or malfunction) into numbers. Therefore, the value of this book is manifold.
In addition, the style of the text and the accurate and complete explanation of the used notation allows to follow even demanding mathematical derivations and to rate this book as one that satisfies readers even with highest scientific expectations. In this way, this book can also be warmly recommended as lecture book for academic education."
—Johann Nicolics, Institute of Sensor and Actuator Systems, ISAS, Austria
"Increasing system complexity across all disciplines has resulted in a number of increasingly formidable challenges, especially in the areas of failure analysis. What has been shown is that complex system failures in the field defy simple analysis using traditional tools such as convergent causal analysis. Given the overwhelming consequences of such failures, the associated challenge then becomes one of preventing the potential failures to the highest degree possible. In many cases the boundary conditions on the human interface during development have been overly simplified and include an abundance of assumptions. Human-in-the-Loop: Probabilistic Modeling is a necessary step in the direction of being able to manage the increasing phenomenological aspects of the human-machine interaction. This content is extensible across disciplines and should be recognized as a necessary element in the further development of effective preventive methods in development of systems that continue to increase in complexity."
—David J. Auda, CRE, CMQ/OE, Reliability/Safety Engineer
"The merit of this essential book is twofold: while it introduces and integrates key concepts of Human Factors into probabilistic safety engineering for aerospace, it underpins the ergonomists’ understanding of cognitive engineering principles with profound statistical theory. Though providing a broad and easy to read introduction of probabilistic engineering with many examples, Ephraim Suhir then continues to explore the application of statistical principles in human-system interaction in significant depth. This book makes an important contribution to the Human Factors body of knowledge, and it emphasizes the need for numerical models in a science that is often understood to be based on qualitative principles."
—Gunther Paul, Editor-in-Chief, Int. Journal of Human Factors Modelling and Simulation, Associate Professor and Principle Research Fellow, Occupational Health and Safety, James Cook University, Australia
"Ephraim Suhir has been working on the modeling and quantification of the role of the human factor for many years. This book represents a synthetic view of his contribution to the field. His approach is pioneering and unique. It is also very important as it allows experts in the fields of reliability physics and human factors to bridge the gap between disciplines and build an integrated tool for risk quantification."
—Jean-Marc Salotti, Cognitics and Human Engineering Team, IMS laboratory, Bordeaux INP, France
"Dr. Suhir shows in his book that the performance of complex engineering systems, in which human activities are critical, can be described not only by a what he calls "black box" approach, but also and preferably by the probability-of-failure based "white box" concept, in which the human factor and the reliability of the instrumentation (both its hard- and software) contribute jointly to the likely outcome of an aerospace mission. The suggested coalescence of physics-of-failure related and probabilistic predictive modeling methodologies is a significant step forward in the human-in-the-loop field, and not only in the area of aerospace engineering, but also in a number of other areas of ergonomics science. There is no doubt in my mind that both accomplished engineers and engineering students will find in Dr. Suhir's book a substantiated and fruitful theoretical approach to quantify an outcome of an aerospace mission or an off-normal situation."
—Bruno Levrier, Consultant, Bruno Levrier Expertises, Bordeaux, France
"Probabilistic design and reliability assessment of electronic and photonic devices and systems is undoubtedly identified as the major factor in the development of advanced technologies for aerospace applications. However, aerospace craft do not only include more and more sophisticated equipment and instrumentation but also human-system interaction as a possible and critical source of uncertainty. The challenge is to model the role of the human factor. In this context, Ephraim Suhir succeeds in proposing a significant step forward with a novel approach of adaptive probabilistic predictive modeling of an aerospace mission taking into account the role of the human factor."
—Laurent Bechou, Professor, IMS Laboratory, University of Bordeaux, France, Adjunct Professor, CNRS Nanotechnologies & Nanosystems Laboratory, University of Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
"Dr. Suhir's book covers a practically important topic that is marginally addressed by other authors. The link between the human factors and the outcome of a critical application, such as the aerospace field, is addressed and clearly analyzed. The rigorous mathematical approach in a field, which is usually considered "humanistic", is a masterpiece indeed! The book is well written and is clear even for beginners. It is an excellent piece of work."
—Pasquale Daponte, Chair of Italian Association for Electrical and Electronic Measurements, University of Sannio, Roma, Italy
"Quantitative analytical methods in psychology and ergonomics have limited application in the contemporary studies of human performance. From this perspective suggested by Suhir method of probabilistic modeling of the Aerospace Mission Outcome presents new principles of studding human performance at the design stage.
The presented in this book analytical principles of study are critically important for task analysis, equipment design, safety and reliability analysis of man-machine and Human-computer interaction systems."
—Gregory Bedny- the founder of the Systemic-Structural Activity Theory
"A high reliability electronic assembly is a complex interaction of materials that depends on the harmonious interface of their various mechanical, thermal, and electrical properties. Identifying and correcting design flaws later in the product development cycle is extremely costly, with the worst-case scenario being discovering design problems after failures occur in the field. Implementing a human factors analysis tool to assess the input to the design will forever change this concept. Ephraim has detailed a unique approach to this issue."
—Greg Caswell, DfR Solutions, Maryland, USA
"The most worn books on my own shelves are of two types: classic textbooks describing theory and books that provide applications of theory. In the professional practice of engineering, it is books on applications that prove more valuable. These resources provide insights that contribute to quality engineering work product. Dr. Suhir’s new book Human-in-the-Loop: Probabilistic Modeling of an Aerospace Mission Outcome is just such a resource. In this book, he applies probability to problems involving Human Factors. I recommend this book."
—Dr. Daniel N. Donahoe, PE, Utah, USA
"To predict, quantify and assure electronics reliability is a Pandore‘s box. Several engineers and scientists actors aim to tackle these questions: a not easy and simple practice when considering physics of objects and even worst when introducing Human-in-the-loop. Professor Ephraim Suhir is a mentor in these fields and this book details the basis of the mathematics nature of things being an outstanding role models for earliest physics education of engineers and scientists."
—Alain Bensoussan, IEEE Senior Member, Doctor Engineer in Applied Physics and Expert in optoelectronics and microelectronics parts for space application, Thales Alenia Space and IRT Saint Exupery, Toulouse, France
"What makes this book special, entertaining and enjoyable is the combination of numerous life-relevant highly practical examples and an entertaining writing style. Plain and clear English helps a reader to understand and apply with ease rather complicated and even sophisticated probabilistic models. This book will find its place, I am sure, on the shelf of many engineers and applied scientists, even beyond the aerospace field."
—Andrey Ovcharenko, Engineering Technologist, ARE - Advanced Reliability Engineering, Western Digital®, California, USA