Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

John Bryant, Junni L. Zhang

© 2019 - Chapman and Hall/CRC
Published July 3, 2018
Reference - 280 Pages
ISBN 9781498762625 - CAT# K28918
Series: Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences

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Features

  • New, unifed statistical approach to applied demography
  • Designed to work multiple messy datasets, including administrative data and big data
  • Includes small area estimation and forecasting
  • All methods implemented in associated R packages
  • Emphasizes ideas and practical applications, with numerous examples

Summary

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty.

The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com.

"This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters…as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

 

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