Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters
Features
- Unveils a new methodology for forecasting zero-probability natural disasters
- Highlights the reasons for common forecasting failures
- Propose a method for resolving the mystery of nonlinearity
- Include numerous real-life case studies that illustrate how to properly digitize available information
- Supplies proven methods for forecasting small-probability natural disasters
Summary
Although scientists have effectively employed the concepts of probability to address the complex problem of prediction, modern science still falls short in establishing true predictions with meaningful lead times of zero-probability major disasters. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the critical need for improved methods of predicting natural disasters. Drawing on their vast practical experience and theoretical studies, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist in the modern system of science to provide the understanding required to improve our ability to forecast and prepare for such events.
Presenting a series of new understandings, theories, and a new system of methodology, Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters simplifies the world-class problem of prediction into a series of tasks that can be learned, mastered, and applied in the analysis and prediction of forthcoming changes in materials or fluids. These internationally respected authors introduce their novel method of digitization for dealing with irregular information, proven effective for predicting transitional changes in events. They also:
- Unveil a new methodology for forecasting zero-probability natural disasters
- Highlight the reasons for common forecasting failures
- Propose a method for resolving the mystery of nonlinearity
- Include numerous real-life case studies that illustrate how to properly digitize available information
- Supply proven methods for forecasting small-probability natural disasters
This authoritative resource provides a systematic discussion of the non-evolutionality of the modern system of science—analyzing its capabilities and limitations. By touching on the need for change in some of the fundamentals in basic scientific theories and relevant methodologies, this book provides the scientific community with the understanding and methodology required to forecast zero-probability major disasters with greatly improved accuracy.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Analyzing Materials and Events, Analyzing Quantities, and the System of Science
What Quantities Are and Where They Are From
Rotational Movements
What Time Is
Irregular Information and Digital Structuralization
Embryonic Deficits of Quantitative Analysis Systems
Concepts on the Concept of Determinacy
Randomness and Quantitative Comparability
Equations of Dynamics and Complexity
Attributes and Problems of Numbers and Their Morphological Transformations
Incompleteness of Quantities
Folding and Sharp Turning in Mathematical Models
Blown-Ups of Quadratic Nonlinear Models and Dynamic Spatial Transformations
The Dynamic Implicit Transformation of the Riemann Ball
Whole Evolution of Bifurcation Mathematical Models and Nonlinear Elasticity Models
Eight Theorems on Mathematical Properties of Nonlinearity
Achievements and Problems of the Dynamic System of Wave Motions
The Classical Vibration and Wave Motion System
Mathematical Waves and Related Problems
Linearization or Weak-Linearization of Nonlinear Equations
Nondimensionalization of the Two-Dimensional
The Problem of Integrability of the KdV and Burgers Equations
The Circulation Theorem and Generalization of the Mystery of Nonlinearity
Bjerknes’s Circulation Theorem
Generalized Meaning of Nonlinearity
Mystery of Nonlinearity
Einstein’s General Relativity Theory and the Problem of Gravitational Waves
Probabilistic Waves of the Schrodinger Equation and Transmutation of High-Speed Flows
Numerical Experiments on Probabilistic Waves and Torsion of Quantum Effects
Nonlinear Computations and Experiments
Mathematical Properties and Numerical Computability of Nonlinearity
Computational Stability Analysis of Nonconservative and Conservative Schemes of Nonlinear Fluid Equations
The Form of Computational Stability of the Conservative Scheme
Principal Problems in the Quantitative Computations of Harmonic Wave Analysis of Spectral Expansions
Lorenz’s Chaos Doctrine and Related Computational Schemes
Evolution Science
Specifics of the Concept of Noninertial Systems
What Is Time?
Stirring Motion and Stirring Energy
Physical Quantities, Parametric Dimension, and Variable Events
Irregular Information and Regional Digitization
Digitization of Region-Specific Information and Prediction of Disastrous Weathers
The Digital Design and Functions of the V-3θ Graphs
Structural Characteristics of Major Disastrous Weathers
The Problem of Mid- and Long-Term Forecasts
Examples of Case Studies
Digital Transformation of Automatically Recorded Information
Some Briefings
Digitization of Automatically Recorded Information of Disastrous Weathers
Examples of Digitizing Seismological Oscillating Information and Prediction of Earthquakes
Afterword
References
Index
Author Bio(s)
Editorial Reviews
"In this book, we will not only reveal the calls of the problems existing in the system of modern science, but we will also provide the methodology and technology for resolving the practical challenge of predicting the unknown future. It is our hope that the publication of this book will reach a greater audience of the scientific community, and that the methodology of forecasting zero-probability natural disasters, as introduced in this book, can be further applied and perfected." —from the Preface
